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Recently, I looked at the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and found a rather magical phenomenon - the American economy is now literally two worlds.

**How cold is the traditional economy? Data doesn't lie**

In November, the Chicago PMI plummeted to 36.3, the worst performance since May this year, significantly below the neutral line of 50. The Beige Book clearly expressed a "chill":

The job market has not had any good news in the past six weeks, with weak job growth; prices are still hovering at high levels, and inflation cannot be explained solely by tariffs; consumption is even more polarized—ordinary people are tightening their belts, while the wealthy continue to spend lavishly to support high-end retail; what’s more troublesome is that the impact of the government shutdown is no longer limited to federal employees, but is starting to spread to a broader economic front.

**But what about AI? It's burning hot.**

This is the most divided place. The brown book specifically mentions that investment in the field of artificial intelligence is experiencing explosive growth. But here comes the problem—money related to AI is pouring in wildly, while recruitment in traditional industries is shrinking. In simple terms, the driving force behind the growth of the US economy right now relies almost entirely on AI in this one track. Other fields? They're basically dragging behind.

**How difficult is it for the Federal Reserve to operate now?**

Imagine this scene: the manufacturing sector is in decline, consumer spending is weak, and logically, interest rates should be lowered to stimulate the economy; however, on the other hand, inflation hasn't come down, and AI investments are overheated, making it risky to lower interest rates as it could exacerbate the situation. Policymakers now feel like they are walking a tightrope, with no good options on either side.

The current pattern of "AI leading the way while traditional sectors lag behind" actually offers insights for the cryptocurrency market. On one hand, there are indeed long-term opportunities in the technology innovation sector (including Web3); on the other hand, the overall fragility of the economy cannot be ignored, and risks should not be overlooked. Staying clear-headed is more important than blind optimism.