Bitcoin's Year-End Surge to $100,000? Key resistance levels and Fed policies as dominant factors

According to Gate market data, Bitcoin consolidated around $91,400 on November 28, marking a significant rebound from last week's low of nearly $80,000.

This rebound coincides with a sharp rise in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability has surged from around 39% a week ago to approximately 87%.

01 Current Market Situation: A Balanced Pattern Amidst Bull and Bear Confrontation

The price of Bitcoin has entered a critical balance range after experiencing a significant fluctuation. As of November 28, the trading price of Bitcoin has stabilized around $91,400, indicating that the market has found a temporary equilibrium near this level.

This price level means that Bitcoin is still down about 26.66% from its 52-week high of $124,658, but it has seen a strong rebound from last week's low of nearly $80,000.

On the weekly level, Bitcoin is expected to end a four-week downtrend, achieving a nearly 8% weekly increase. This shift is mainly attributed to the re-entry of institutional funds and the market's optimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's change in monetary policy.

Institutional investors are replacing retail traders as the dominant force in the market, and this shift has made cryptocurrency prices more influenced by macroeconomic trends rather than the traditional four-year halving cycle.

02 Price Prediction Analysis: Finding Consensus Amid Disagreement

Market analysts have interesting divergences in their predictions for Bitcoin's future trend, but there is a general consensus that it may test the psychological barrier of 100,000 USD by the end of the year.

• Short-term forecast (1-2 weeks): CoinCodex maintains a relatively optimistic Bitcoin prediction, aiming to reach $100,899 this week and $108,715 before December 1, with an increase of 7.75%. Technical analysis indicates that breaking through the $95,000 resistance level is key to validating this bullish outlook.
• Mid-term outlook (until the end of December): Mathematical models predict that Bitcoin may reach $131,227 before December 17, implying an increase of about 40.70%. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, also believes that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by the end of the year and may even set a new record above $126,000.
• Long-term outlook: JPMorgan has set a more ambitious target, believing that Bitcoin could reach $240,000 in the long run. They emphasize that the cryptocurrency market is transitioning from a venture capital-style ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class.

The market sentiment monitoring platform Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of December is currently 52%, up more than 17% from recent lows.

03 Interpretation of Technical Indicators: Comparison of Buying and Selling Strength in Charts

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently at a critical decision point, with multiple indicators providing corroborative but slightly contradictory signals.

The MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum is strengthening, with a histogram reading of 599.1372, indicating that buyers are regaining control.

The RSI is at 41.27, in the neutral zone, suggesting there is enough room for an upward movement without immediate concerns of overbought conditions. This technical structure provides a reasonable basis for further short-term increases.

The moving average system shows an intertwined state: the Bitcoin price is currently above the 7-day moving average ($88,639) but below the key 20-day SMA ($93,428). This configuration indicates short-term support, but the medium to long-term trend still faces pressure.

Bollinger Band analysis shows that Bitcoin is at 0.42, positioned between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands. Historically, this is a setup favorable for a mean reversion towards the upper band at $106,168.

04 Analysis of Influencing Factors: The Combined Forces of Macro and Micro

monetary policy expectations

The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the current market's most关注的 driving factor. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting on December 9-10 have risen sharply, with the probability increasing from about 50.1% a week ago to 85.3%.

The remarks by Federal Reserve official John Williams support another short-term interest rate cut, along with the PPI inflation report showing a weak labor market, which is a more concerning issue than rising inflation, collectively strengthening the case for a rate cut.

geopolitical risks

The global geopolitical tensions are escalating, which is also affecting market risk appetite. The prospects for Russia-Ukraine negotiations are highly uncertain, while the United States has announced plans to expand anti-drug operations against Venezuela. These geopolitical hotspots are driving global risk pricing towards a multi-regional disturbance model.

Market Structure Change

The structure of the cryptocurrency market itself is undergoing profound changes. JPMorgan points out that the crypto market is increasingly driven by macro trends rather than the familiar halving cycles of Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin as an asset class is maturing.

05 Trading Strategy Suggestions: Balancing Opportunities and Risks

Based on the current market conditions and technical analysis, investors may consider the following strategies approach:

• Conservative Strategy: Wait for Bitcoin to break above $95,000 and confirm with strong trading volume before establishing a position. This approach may sacrifice some upside potential, but it effectively reduces risk.
• Aggressive Strategy: The current level offers an attractive risk-reward ratio, with a stop loss set below $88,000 (below the 7-day moving average). This strategy aligns with the bullish forecast for Bitcoin.
• Position Size Management: Given the neutral RSI and mixed technical signals, limit Bitcoin risk exposure to 5-10% of the portfolio. Build positions gradually instead of deploying all capital at once.
• Key Level Monitoring: Closely monitor the support area of $89,000-$88,000; if breached, it may trigger a structural move towards the mid-term pivot point of $86,000. On the upside, the resistance area of $94,000 is key.

06 Future Outlook: Bitcoin at the Crossroads

Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, with the interaction between short-term pain and long-term potential still evident.

December will be a crucial month for Bitcoin, as the market will simultaneously face multiple factors including macro geopolitical repricing, high technical resistance, expectations of monetary easing, and a weak labor market.

Capital flows are becoming more conservative and short-term oriented. In the short term, price direction will depend more on whether geopolitical tensions significantly cool down and whether risk capital is willing to re-engage, rather than isolated technological breakthroughs.

Institutional investors like Hilbert Group accumulate Bitcoin at $84,568, emphasizing a long-term yield strategy rather than pure price speculation, indicating that smart money is using market volatility to build strategic positions.

The 730-day simple moving average (81,250 USD) is a key long-term support level, and if it falls below this level, it may confirm a structural downtrend.

Future Outlook

In the short term, the price movement of Bitcoin depends on whether it can successfully break through the resistance level of $95,000. This breakthrough could trigger a new wave of momentum buying, pushing the price towards $107,500.

The broader market landscape is that cryptocurrency is no longer just a playground for adventurers; the market depth provided by institutional investors is stabilizing capital flows and may anchor long-term prices.

Regardless of short-term fluctuations, the maturation process of Bitcoin as an asset class continues, and its future trends will be more dominated by global macroeconomic trends rather than its own halving cycles.