#数字货币市场回升 Is this pullback a halftime break in the bull run or an early curtain call?

Let's first look at a few different signals.

On the retail side, there hasn't been that kind of nationwide frenzy where everyone is all-in yet. The aunties in the vegetable market aren't discussing buying coins, and taxi drivers haven't started recommending altcoins. Historical experience tells us that a true peak is often accompanied by a collective illusion of "everyone thinks they can get rich." Now? Not even close. This means that the reservoir of incremental funds has yet to reach its bottom.

Looking at the sentiment again. Although the price is adjusting, the old players in major communities are basically still bullish. This is different from the obsession at the end of a bull run where people thought, "It doesn't matter if it drops, it will come back up anyway"—the current consensus is more based on fundamental judgments rather than blind faith. Panic? So far, there are no signs of widespread spread.

The most critical factor is the flow of funds. Public companies like MicroStrategy are still frantically buying Bitcoin, while exchange data shows a continuous net outflow of funds. Large investors are not selling to cash out, but are choosing to transfer to cold wallets for long-term holding. This institutional behavior of "just hoarding and not selling" has given the market a shot of adrenaline.

Considering these points, aside from the K-line dancing, the underlying logic of the market has not provided a clear signal for the end of the bull run. The time window from December to January next year may still hold new variables.