Next month, 23 billion in Options Delivery! A single institution has already bet 1.7 billion USD that BTC must close within this range by the end of the year!

10W stalemate battlefield, below 8W5 must slide and kneel? Currently all written in this December 26th Options data...

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Today, the 13 billion Options have just been delivered, and on December 26 next month, the crypto world will witness the largest Options delivery in history -- with a nominal amount of 23 billion USD.
This is not just a quarterly Delivery, but rather an annual Delivery.

With so much money on the table, how do you think the institutions will play it?
Let's take a look together....

[First look at the positions of this wave of Options]

The bullish side (Call) is concentrated in the following positions (Figure 1 blue columns)
100000，106000，112000，118000

In conclusion, this distribution of over 100,000 every 6,000 points shows that the market is not only betting that today's price will return above 100,000, but is also constructing positions through various spread combinations.

There may be a portion of naked longs, as well as some structured combinations like call spreads / call condors, rather than simply a market betting on a massive surge.

Such a large position hedging behavior nearby will also lead to new pressure walls every 6000 points above even if the price breaks through 100,000.. (100000, 106000, 112000, 118000)

Special 10W itself is also a place that needs to be repeatedly tempered under various hedging pressures (in the absence of major positive developments).

The put side is mainly concentrated at 85000 and 80000 (the yellow bars in the figure)

In conclusion, in today's Delivery of the 11.28 Options, there used to be a large amount of positions at 90000. However, in 11.28, the positions here are very low..

It indicates that although 90000 has been a psychological support these past two days, after today's Options Delivery, there hasn't been a strong defensive position formed here.

The defensive focus and contested range of the derivatives market are more towards 85000..

[Maximum pain point, currently around 100000]

100K is a psychological barrier for many people.. At the same time, it is also where the option sellers (large institutions) benefit the most..

This place has guiding significance for this wave of 23 billion Options.. (After all, there is still a month for the market to fluctuate, and it also includes the FOMC meeting on December 10.)

At the same time, around 100,000, there is also significant meaning from other data, which will be discussed further regarding this position..

[Huge institutions building positions]

Just a few days ago, it was disclosed that an institution executed a bullish options combination worth $1.7 billion through an over-the-counter agreement (Figure 2).

According to the analysis, this combination constructs a call condor from 100,000 to 118,000.

This strategy will hold a large position between 100,000 and 118,000.. which corresponds exactly to the blue line peaks of those 4 calls.
This one institution accounts for about 13% of the total notional open interest of 23 billion.

In conclusion, from this strategy itself, this combination actually bets that BTC will settle between 100,000 and 118,000 at the expiration on December 26.

The strategy is most profitable within this range; profits decrease significantly below 100,000 or above 118,000.
If it deviates greatly from this range, it will incur losses.

The range for maximum profit is between 106000-112000...

This can be considered as the expectations and bets of large funds..
At the same time, because this news has spread throughout the market, some people are worried about whether there will be market manipulation operations around this range...

The area around 100,000 is currently the range with the largest call positions, and it cannot be ruled out that these institutions may use their chip and capital advantages to guide or suppress the spot price.

Just a reminder, the 100,000 to 118,000 is just the range where institutions expect the final price to fall after entering a position of 1.7 billion.
does not represent the range of the entire December market game..

[Looking at the Difficulty of Hitting 100,000 from Gamma]

Here, I won't elaborate on what Gamma is; simply understand Gamma as how options market makers need to hedge in these price ranges.

Currently, the gamma is shown in Figure 3.
The options for 12.26 are in the vertical column for 28d in the chart, and the other vertical columns also include other options that will expire in the future.

Just say the conclusion:

Let's first talk about the range near the price.

9W2~9W4, high-intensity positive Gamma → market makers hedge against volatility, difficult to break through, difficult to plunge..
Price rises a bit → Market maker sells → Resistance to the rise
Price drops a bit → Market makers buy → Resistance of the drop
So the main movement here is oscillation. 9W5 has the maximum positive gamma within 14 days.. It is the largest resistance zone before 10W..

9W1~9W, high-intensity negative Gamma → the hedging of market makers will amplify volatility,
Price drops a bit → Market maker sells → Price drops deeper
Price goes up a bit → Market maker buys → Rises faster
So breaking below 9W1 9W is likely to accelerate the decline..

Let's talk about the two largest intervals of gamma again.

100,000, the options at 12.26 here (28d) are in an extremely large positive gamma zone.
8W5, there is also an enormous negative gamma area here.

As with the previous position analysis.. these two will become key ranges, with the specific performance of 10W in positive gamma being

You can think of these two places as an incredibly large glue zone. When the price is far from this area, it won't have much impact.

But when the price approaches this area (for example, 9W8~10W2)
This will be caused by various hedging actions of the options sellers, leading to increased resistance to price fluctuations and smaller fluctuation amplitudes.. (Walking into the glue zone, the speed of movement becomes very slow.)

This is because, when the price rises from 9W8 to 10W: the Call Delta in the market makers' hands increases. To maintain neutrality, they must sell a portion of BTC spot or Futures.

As a result, during the process of 9W8 rising to 10W, there will be mechanical selling pressure from options market makers in the market. Therefore, it will become a resistance during the upward movement.

It feels very difficult to rise, every bit of increase feels like walking in glue, because market makers are constantly selling to hedge. At this time, it is resistance.

If the bullish strength is strong enough, the price has finally pushed up to around 100K. When it falls towards 98K, the market makers' Call Delta decreases. To maintain neutrality, they must buy BTC.

So this will again become the resistance for the price to drop..
This is the "mud pit zone" mentioned earlier. Once the price reaches around 100,000, no matter which direction the price moves, the options market makers will pull the price in the opposite direction.

So, around 100,000, as long as there is no major breaking news, the price tends to consolidate. The volatility will decrease. Continuing to be stuck in this range...

Until there is news or other greater forces that drive the price out of this range...
(Of course, when it gets close to 9W8, I will re-evaluate gamma exposure to see if it is still in a positive gamma state.)

【From Gamma, how dangerous is 8W5 for the bulls】

Now 80,000 is an incredibly large negative gamma zone.. This means that when the price reaches here, it will accelerate volatility instead of reducing it like the positive gamma at 100,000 above...

The current IV around 100K is approximately 43% - 44%.
And the IV near 8W5 is at 48% - 49%..

The IV below is significantly higher than above, indicating that the market is paying a higher premium to buy the 85000 Put protection. This usually means: this is retail/institutional investors buying insurance against a downturn, rather than simply selling puts to earn rent. Market makers are selling puts.

So, the buyer frantically bought 85,000 Put options (to guard against a subsequent collapse).
Market makers are forced to sell these Put options.
Market Maker Short Put = Negative Gamma

If the price really breaks below 90K to test 85K:
Market makers must short futures to hedge their Put positions.
The lower the price falls, the more aggressively the market makers sell.

So breaking 85K easily leads to continued sliding down..

So purely from the current options perspective, 8W5 here is considered a bull stop-loss line, rather than a bottom-fishing line. In the negative Gamma zone, catching a falling knife often occurs halfway down the slope.
(Of course, when we get closer to 8W7 8W6, I will re-evaluate the gamma exposure to see if it is still in a negative gamma state.)

In the end,
This is a series of observation notes from my recent Options study period.. Just viewpoints based on the current Options market observations..
The data for the next month will change with the market... We will continue to update after there are significant changes...