Is Bitcoin Headed for a Crash? Macro Expert Lyn Alden Says Not So Fast

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden just threw cold water on the “Bitcoin is about to tank” narrative that’s been making rounds lately.

On the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, Alden argued that BTC isn’t anywhere near the euphoria levels that typically precede a major sell-off. “We’re simply not seeing the frenzied behavior that signals capitulation is coming,” she explained. Translation: don’t expect a bloodbath anytime soon.

Here’s where her take gets interesting: the old “four-year halving cycle” framework might be dead. According to Alden, macro conditions and genuine asset interest—not just event-driven hype—are now the real drivers. That could mean market swings play out differently than historically.

Not everyone’s buying it though. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, recently predicted a 65-70% pullback over the next two years. That’s basically saying Bitcoin could crater from current levels.

Current reality check:

• BTC hit $125,100 on Oct 5, now trading around $85,710
• That’s a 22.46% drop in just 30 days
• Down roughly 32% from the all-time high

Alden’s take? Market outcomes rarely swing as hard as people fear or hope. Her forecast: BTC reclaims $100K in 2026, potentially smashing all-time highs by late 2026 or 2027.

The real lesson: stop assuming bull markets are guaranteed. They’re not. But neither are crashes.