After a big dump of 30%, on-chain data said a cruel thing.

In three days, the backend encountered a problem with a repetition rate exceeding 90%: “Is it a Whipsaw or a complete reversal now?”

To be honest, it’s not surprising. From the historical high, it has dropped nearly 30,000 points; newcomers are already cutting losses, and veterans are also sweating. But my judgment after 8 years in this field is: you don’t need to guess, looking at the data is 100 times more accurate than guessing.

This drop actually had signs early on.

What is most surprising is not the decline itself, but that many people can clearly see the warning signs yet still do not react:

1. The妖币 is wildly pumping = The market has reached its peak

A couple of weeks ago, when mainstream coins were still consolidating, some insignificant altcoins suddenly surged 3-5 times in a single day. I've seen this scene before — it was like this at the peak in November 2021. Funds fleeing from value assets to speculative products usually means that the real money has started to pull out. At that time, I was urging to reduce positions in the community, and I was criticized for “missing out and feeling sour”, but two weeks later, these coins dropped back to their original form.

2. The technical aspect has already “run out of breath”

The 200-day moving average and the annual line are the two lifelines of a three-year cycle. Breaking through both at the same time? It's like both load-bearing columns of a house have collapsed—those who still say “it's just a short-term adjustment” are a bit self-deceptive.

3. Leverage data reveals the truth of panic

$19 billion in liquidations in a single week is not the magnitude of a healthy correction. Large-scale forced liquidations can cause a domino effect, and such declines are often more severe than those driven by fundamentals.

4. The “Curse” of the Halving Cycle

2016 halving → 18 months later (February 2018) turns bearish 2020 Halving → 18 months later (June 2022) into a bear market The halving in 2024 → it is exactly the 18th month now.

The historical patterns are right there; the pressure of this time window should have been alerted in advance.

5. Federal Reserve's “hawkish shift” = exhaustion of incremental funds

The expectation of interest rate cuts has completely cooled, with officials repeatedly making hawkish statements, and liquidity is starting to tighten. The essence of the crypto market is driven by money; without increased capital, any market trends are in vain.

What is the current situation?

In simple terms: The consolidation bottoming phase is underway, but the risk of a bear market is increasing.

It is highly likely to fluctuate between 80,000 and 90,000 before the end of the year. If it breaks below the hard support of 80,000, the probability of entering a true bear market is ≥70%.

But there is no need to be completely pessimistic, because there is a key signal: compliant products (spot ETFs) are still absorbing $253 million in a single day. This indicates that large funds have not completely fled; they are just waiting for opportunities. Compared to the worst times in 2018 and 2022—when even institutions were frantically withdrawing—the current situation is not that desperate.

3 Strategies to Survive

1. Cash is King

Keep at least 50% cash position. In a bear market, cash flow is worth more than any asset.

2. Only play mainstream + have applications

Stay away from small coins that are purely conceptual. Focus on targets with institutional holdings and real technology or application scenarios.

3. Don't be “addicted to bottom fishing”

Feeling that “it's already the bottom” when it drops 30% is the most common illusion in a bear market. The declines in a bear market often last much longer than you think, so wait for clear signs of stabilization before taking action.

The last piece of heartfelt advice: The market never moves in a straight line. What peaks must decline and what declines must rebound is eternal. Instead of getting tangled up every day in “Is it a bull or bear market now?”, it’s better to improve yourself during the market's quiet times — true opportunities often arise amidst dead silence.