Bitcoin's Wild $7K Bounce Masks Deeper Trouble

Just when everyone thought the bleeding wouldn’t stop, Bitcoin dropped a surprise Sunday—literally ripping from $80K to $87K in hours while the whole market was looking away.

But here’s the thing: one good candle doesn’t fix a month-long massacre. The king has already shed $1 trillion across the entire crypto space in 9 days, sitting 33% below October’s $126K peak. Year-to-date? Still underwater by 10%, putting 2025 on track to become the worst year since 2022 if this pressure keeps up.

What actually triggered the bounce?

Hyperion DeFi’s Hyunsu Jung says it’s premature to call this a reversal. The real story: long-term investors—not day traders—have been dumping hard. We’re talking institutional-level exits, with BlackRock shareholders rotating from crypto back to equities, compounded by the AI trade potentially running out of steam and global rate uncertainty hanging overhead.

The technical setup was already broken too. Bitcoin climbed in early October but the RSI never followed—classic bearish divergence. When it lost the $106K support level, the floodgates opened, and selling volume has stayed heavy ever since.

What needs to happen next?

Neomarkets KZ analyst Oleg Kalmanovich is watching U.S. spending data like a hawk. If October retail sales (due Nov 25) and consumption figures disappoint, the Fed might cut rates December 10, which could spark real recovery. Miss those targets? He expects crypto to stay under pressure through spring 2026.

GIS Mining’s Vasily Girya pins the immediate test at $87K. If Bitcoin closes below that before U.S. markets open Monday, we could enter a prolonged stagnation phase. To avoid crypto winter, BTC needs to hold $93K by Monday morning—that’s the technical floor that would signal traders’ conviction is actually returning.

Right now though? Everyone’s in wait-and-see mode, and wealthier traders are still rotating toward dollar assets. One bounce is noise until it holds.