When the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December soared to 87%, the financial market launched a frenzy as expected. The three major U.S. stock indexes reached new interim highs, gold steadily climbed due to its dual properties of being a safe haven and inflation hedge, while silver achieved excessive gains thanks to expectations of industrial demand recovery. However, amidst this widespread bullish trend, the crypto market went against the tide. This strange divergence pattern raises doubts: Is the bear market really approaching as indicated by moving averages, candlesticks, and other technical indicators?

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The answer may not be that simple. The meeting held by the People's Bank of China on November 28 to combat virtual currency trading speculation is the key to unraveling this market puzzle. This coordination mechanism meeting is by no means a simple policy reiteration, but rather a strong regulatory signal released at a sensitive point of market sentiment. The uniqueness of the crypto market lies in its global circulation properties, which create a natural contradiction with the fragmented regulatory policies of different countries, while China has always maintained a high-pressure regulatory stance against virtual currency trading speculation. This meeting is likely to strengthen the control over key links such as trading intermediaries, capital flows, and technical services, directly hitting the liquidity pain points of the crypto market. Unlike the U.S. stock market relying on corporate profits and precious metals relying on physical demand, the cryptocurrency market is highly dependent on capital consensus. The tightening of regulatory policies often triggers panic withdrawals of capital in the short term, which is also the core reason for its counter-trend decline under favorable macro conditions.
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The so-called "cyclical turning points" from the technical analysis camp find it difficult to explain the current differentiation between the crypto market and traditional risk assets—if we are indeed at the starting point of a Bear Market, why are US stocks continuing to rise? From the annual performance perspective, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen by over 90% this year, far exceeding the performance of US stocks. This long-term upward trend will not be reversed by a single trading day's decline. More importantly, there are no signs of large-scale withdrawals of institutional funds during this decline, and the market capitalization of stablecoins remains at a high level, indicating that long-term capital in the market has not been shaken. The short-term fluctuations are more likely the result of emotional sell-offs triggered by regulatory news. Instead of being obsessed with the "Bear Market predictions" of technical indicators, it is better to rationally examine the policy environment of the crypto market and one's own risk tolerance—against the backdrop of increasingly clear regulations, the crypto market is gradually bidding farewell to barbaric growth. Only those assets that truly possess technical value and application scenarios can achieve long-term appreciation amidst volatility.