#数字资产市场观察 According to the latest data disclosed by the CME's "Fed Watch" tool, as of November 29, the market's bets on the December interest rate meeting have become quite clear—the expected probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has surged to 86.4%, practically a done deal. In contrast, the likelihood of maintaining the interest rate has been compressed to only 13.6%.

Interestingly, there is a divergence in the forward expectations. If we extend the timeline to January next year, traders' judgments start to show clear differences: the majority (67.1%) believe there will be a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, which means a cut in December followed by a pause to observe; 10% bet that the Fed will hold steady; and nearly a quarter (23%) of the more aggressive faction is betting on a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points—meaning two consecutive cuts.

This expectation divergence actually reflects the complexity of the current macro environment: inflation data, the employment market, and policy signals are all pulling in different directions. For the crypto market, changes in liquidity expectations are often more noteworthy than the rate cuts themselves. $BTC $ETH