#美SEC推动加密创新监管 Recently, I have been reviewing the data from three rounds of Supercycle and found something quite interesting—the driving logic of 2017, 2021, and this time in 2025 is completely different.

Let's start with the conclusion: this round is not the kind of madness where retail investors speculate on air coins, nor is it the disaster movie of cascading explosions from lending platforms like in 2022. Essentially, it is driven by policy expectations and liquidity resonance. The current pullback of 30-35% resembles a normal profit-taking after the honeymoon phase has ended, and during this time, gold has indeed attracted more risk-averse funds.

Looking back, the historical patterns are quite clear. The wave in 2017 was the last carnival before a sudden tightening in certain regions, while 2021 saw institutions taking advantage of panic to bottom out and then rally again after the ban was implemented. By 2025, the script changes to the U.S. initially embracing crypto with fanfare, only to face internal strife—just as the Trump administration's crypto-friendly promises began to materialize, they encountered a backlash from traditional financial forces.

There is a detail worth noting: every time a certain major country's policy suddenly loosens, it often means that the last batch of large funds is ready to enter the market. It was like this before September 4, 2017, it was also like this after the fund secretly flowed back following the ban in September 2021, and the market reaction after the adjustment of personal holding rules in September 2025 similarly confirms this point.

What may truly determine the depth of the next phase are two events in 2026: whether the U.S. Treasury will really start a strategic reserve purchase plan, and whether the Federal Reserve can continue its accommodative policy. If these two variables materialize, a price range of $50,000 to $60,000 could be the bottom area for this round of adjustment, with a decline of approximately 50-65%.

As for a systemic crash like the one in 2022 that dropped by 77% or even more? Personally, I think the probability is less than 20%. The current stage feels more like a transition period from a "policy bull" to a "waiting bull." If the U.S. really starts hoarding coins in 2026-2027, a new cycle is very likely to restart.

The market is not dead; it’s just that the main character has temporarily switched from the crypto narrative to gold stealing the spotlight.