Recently, the trend of Bitcoin has been quite entangled; on one hand, institutional funds are entering the market, while on the other hand, there is various selling pressure. Overall, it looks like it is searching for a balance point.

Let me mention a few noteworthy signals.

News from the Federal Reserve indicates that Powell has loosened restrictions allowing banks to engage with cryptocurrency, which is a significant policy shift. Meanwhile, BlackRock has recently purchased $600 million worth of crypto assets in one go, and their ETF has now become an important source of revenue for the company. These actions all suggest that mainstream financial institutions' attitudes toward this market are undergoing a transformation.

There are also subtle changes on the data level. After a month of continuous net outflows, the Bitcoin ETF finally reversed the trend this week, recording a net inflow of 70 million dollars. Although the amount is not large, the change in direction itself indicates a problem—institutional investors seem to be starting to reallocate their funds.

Market sentiment is also warming up. The Fear and Greed Index has climbed out of the "Extreme Fear" zone, and Coinbase's Bitcoin premium has turned positive. These signals combined at least indicate that the most panicked phase may be over.

However, the risks are also quite apparent.

On the technical side, analysts have pointed out that a clear head and shoulders pattern has appeared on the weekly chart. If the price cannot break through the resistance range of $95,000 to $97,000, the next step may test the mid-position of $50,000. Furthermore, the net outflow data for ETFs in November is quite dismal—reaching $3.48 billion, marking the second worst monthly performance in history, with even BlackRock's IBIT experiencing large redemptions.

Short-term technical indicators are not very optimistic either, with the EMA moving averages starting to decline. USDT net outflow is 57.1 million USD, indicating that various funds are still continuously leaving the market.

There are indeed more optimistic voices in the community. Many people believe that institutions are continuously accumulating positions, the policy environment is improving, and historically, the fourth quarter often performs well, so this wave may still have potential.

In summary, we are now in a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, and the key is whether we can hold the critical position.