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Quantitative tightening has ended, but don't rush to look at the data.
[Block Rhythm] has a quite interesting historical comparison.
Back in 2019, the Federal Reserve said they would stop the balance sheet reduction on August 1. What happened? The numbers on the books kept falling in August. Why? Because those matured Treasury bonds wouldn't be fully settled until mid-month.
It’s the same this time. Although the official announcement on December 1st stated that quantitative tightening has ended, don’t expect the balance sheet to warm up immediately. At this rate, it is estimated that we will have to wait until early next year — that is, around the beginning of 2026 — for the data to truly reflect.
There is always a time lag between policy implementation and data changes.