Waymo blooms in 5 cities, has the competition landscape for Tesla's autonomous driving reversed?

TSL shares have risen 28% this year, with long positions betting on the future of AI and Bots in ride-hailing. However, Waymo's big moves this week may cool investor enthusiasm.

Overview of Competitive Landscape

Waymo announced this week the launch of fully autonomous driving operations in five new cities: Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando. Waymo now covers 10 cities, having completed over 10 million autonomous rides.

What about TSL? Currently, there are only 30 Bots being tested in Austin, Texas, with plans to expand to 500 by the end of the year. More importantly, TSL still requires safety personnel in the vehicle, which Waymo removed back in 2020. TSL's goal is to achieve fully autonomous driving by the end of this year.

The Cost of Chasing

Although TSL has just obtained the operating license in Arizona, by the time it enters Phoenix next year, Waymo will already have over 400 autonomous vehicles on the road.

The good news is that Tesla's pure camera solution is lower in cost and has greater scalability potential than Waymo's lidar. With millions of Tesla vehicles already on the road, the data advantage is obvious.

Investors need to see clearly

Elon Musk's compensation plan (up to $1 trillion) received 75% shareholder support, but the conditions attached are tough: 1 million Bots for commercial operation, 1 million humanoid robots, and 10 million autonomous driving subscription users. This indicates that TSL is transitioning from an automotive manufacturer to a technology company.

But don't forget - TSL's PE is close to 300 times, and its market value is more than 10 times that of Ford and GM combined. There are still a lot of regulatory, litigation, and safety concerns regarding autonomous driving. Waymo is already ahead, and TSL's story still needs time to unfold.

Core Issue: Are you betting on the transformation of traditional car companies or gambling on an uncertain future?