Mystery Fund Dumps $115M Into GEO Group: Here's Why Institutions Are Quietly Loading Up

On November 10, Turiya Advisors Asia made a head-turning move—scooping up 5.6 million shares of The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) for $115.66 million. Here’s the kicker: this single position now represents 30.6% of their entire U.S. equity portfolio.

The Numbers That Matter

• Stake size: 5,644,900 shares ($115.66M)
• Portfolio weight: Nearly one-third of reported holdings
• Stock performance: Down 44% YTD, underperforming S&P 500 by 55.7 percentage points
• Current price: $14.84 (as of Nov 11)
• Market cap: $2.07 billion
• TTM revenue: $2.42 billion

What’s Going On?

A fund doesn’t park a third of its equity book into a single stock without a reason. Turiya’s conviction bet signals they see significant disconnect between GEO’s contracted cash flows and where the market has priced it.

GEO operates correctional facilities, detention centers, and electronic monitoring services across the U.S., Australia, and South Africa—almost entirely funded by long-term government contracts. The business model is unsexy but durable: think steady, contracted revenue with high barriers to entry.

The bull case Turiya seems to be making:

• Growing contract wins and reactivated ICE deals driving revenue growth
• Asset sales and buyback programs supporting returns
• Cash generation pipeline can cover debt reduction AND shareholder returns
• Market has overcorrected on sentiment vs. fundamentals

But there’s real risk here:

• Legal exposure from detainee wage litigation
• Policy uncertainty around private detention capacity
• Customer concentration (heavily dependent on government contracts)
• Political headwinds that won’t disappear overnight

The Real Question

Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or a value trap? Turiya is betting that stable contract activity will outlast policy and legal noise. That thesis only works if the current regulatory environment stays relatively stable and GEO can actually convert contract wins into clean earnings.

The stock has taken a beating. Whether that’s justified or overdone depends entirely on whether you believe GEO’s business durability outweighs its political baggage.