Coffee prices rallying today—arabica up 2.15% and robusta jumping 2.37% to a 2-week high. Here's what's moving the needle:

**Vietnam supply crunch**: Heavy rain in Dak Lak (Vietnam's top coffee region) is delaying harvests, but that's actually bullish for robusta prices. Ironically, Vietnam just reported 2025/26 production climbing 6% to 1.76 MMT—yet weather disruptions are still tightening near-term supplies.

**Brazil tariff mess**: The Trump admin dropped 10% reciprocal tariffs on coffee, but the separate 40% "national emergency" tariff on Brazilian imports is still live. Result? US buyers are ghosting Brazilian contracts hard—imports down 52% YoY through Oct. ICE arabica inventory just hit a 1.75-year low (396,513 bags).

**Dollar weakness helping**: Weaker USD is triggering short covering in arabica. Plus, ICE robusta inventory sitting at a 4-month low (5,640 lots) keeps upside fuel in the tank.

**The bearish wildcard**: Brazil's 2025/26 forecast just jumped to 70.7M bags (+29% YoY). Once that supply hits the market, prices could face headwinds. For now though, tight inventories + weather disruptions = coffee bulls in control.