Coffee Market Heatup: Vietnam's Rain Delays Harvest While Global Supply Tightens

Coffee futures are rallying today—Arabica up 0.57% and Robusta jumping 2.37% to a 2-week high. Here’s what’s moving the needle:

Vietnam’s Weather Shock Heavy rains in Dak Lak (Vietnam’s coffee heartland) are delaying harvests and threatening crop damage. Vietnam produces most of the world’s robusta—so any weather hiccup there ripples globally. The kicker? Vietnam’s 2025/26 output is forecast to hit 31 million bags (a 4-year high), but this rain could trim those gains.

The Brazil Tariff Squeeze Trump’s 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee is creating a supply crunch stateside. US imports of Brazilian coffee from Aug-Oct dropped 52% year-over-year to just 984k bags. ICE arabica inventories hit a 1.75-year low of 396.5k bags—buyers are basically sidestepping Brazil due to tariffs, tightening domestic supplies.

Global Supply Stays Tight The International Coffee Organization reported Oct-Sep exports fell 0.3% y/y to 138.66M bags despite increased production forecasts. World production is projected to reach a record 178.68M bags in 2025/26 (up 2.5%), but demand is keeping pace.

The Numbers That Matter

• Robusta inventories: 4-month low at 5,640 lots
• Arabica inventories: 1.75-year low at 396.5k bags
• Brazil’s 2026/27 production: +29% y/y to 70.7M bags (but tariffs are disrupting this)
• Vietnam’s Jan-Oct 2025 exports: +13.4% y/y to 1.31M tons

What’s Supporting Prices Tariff disruptions + reduced inventories + supply concerns from weather. The flip side? Brazil’s forecast surge could add downward pressure if tariffs ease or if crops develop well.

Bottom line: Coffee’s caught between tight near-term supplies and longer-term production growth. Watch Vietnam’s weather and Trump’s tariff moves—both are price drivers now.