# Can TSMC Surpass Apple Before 2030? This Logic is Quite Interesting

Apple's market value is $4 trillion, firmly holding the second place globally. However, Apple has struggled to grow in the past two years, with revenue essentially stagnating—since mid-2022, there has only been one quarter of barely double-digit growth (which is also rounded). In contrast, TSMC has surged with AI chips, with Q3 revenue in USD growing by 41% year-on-year.

**The data comparison is quite heartbreaking**:
- Apple's EPS growth is expected to be 12% per year (supported by buybacks)
- TSMC EPS growth is expected to be 40% per year (explosive demand for AI computing power)

At this rate, by 2030, Apple's EPS could rise to $13.52, and TSMC could reach $57.08. Multiplied by market value multiples, Apple's market value is $7.2 trillion, and TSMC could jump to $8.3 trillion—surpassing it.

**Why this might be feasible**: AMD predicts that data center revenue will grow at a CAGR of 60% until 2030, and NVIDIA also stated that global data center spending will soar from $600 billion in 2025 to $3-4 trillion by 2030 (42% CAGR). As the world's largest chip foundry, TSMC's new processes can reduce power consumption by 25-30%, providing significant premium space.

**But the risks are real**: This set of assumptions must be perfectly executed - the enthusiasm for AI cannot decline, TSMC's growth must always be maintained at over 40%, and geopolitical issues must not arise. Is the probability high? It's hard to say, but if AI investment really enters the trillion-dollar level, this prediction is not entirely far-fetched.

What do you think?