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The US dollar was a bit awkward on Friday: it once surged to a 5.5-month high, but then turned back, ultimately rising only 0.03%.



The market support comes from the hawkish comments of Boston Fed's Collins and Dallas Fed's Logan (both said to keep interest rates unchanged), along with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index being revised up to 51.0 (higher than the expected 50.6), which makes this move somewhat significant.

But New York Fed's Williams broke the spell with a single phrase: "There is room for rate cuts in the near term." This directly pushed the probability of a rate cut in December from 35% to 66%.

The euro has fallen to a two-week low, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropping to 49.7 (a five-month low), but the ECB vice president said the economy is better than expected, resulting in a significant tug-of-war between the two sides.

The yen rebounded, and Japan's Finance Minister made a strong statement regarding yen fluctuations: "We will intervene if necessary." In October, Japan's exports rose by 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which also helped the yen.

Gold has risen by 0.48%, while silver has fallen by 0.77%. The market is still in a dilemma: the expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for safe-haven assets, but a strong dollar is a negative factor. The central bank continues to buy gold (China's central bank reserves reached a new high of 74.09 million ounces in October, an increase for 12 consecutive months), which is the only supporting force.
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