Why Buffett's Quietest Mega-Bet Might Be His Smartest Move

While everyone’s focused on Apple and the newly disclosed Alphabet position, Berkshire Hathaway’s real conviction play is sitting right under the radar: American Express.

Here’s the thing—BRK hasn’t touched its 151.6M AXP shares ($50B stake) in decades. That’s not accident; it’s a billboard for conviction.

The Numbers Tell a Story

2024: Revenue +9% YoY to $65.9B, EPS jumped 25% to $14.01. The company returned $7.9B to shareholders (repurchases + dividends). Q3 hit even harder—revenue accelerated to 11% growth, EPS +19%. New Platinum card acquisitions doubled after the refresh.

Double-digit growth + fortress economics + $895 annual fee that customers happily pay = pricing power that’s hard to shake.

Here’s the Contrarian Angle

While AXP trades at 24x P/E (tighter than Apple’s 36x or Google’s 30x), most investors sleep on it. Why? Because it’s “boring” financial infrastructure.

That’s exactly where Buffett finds value. The company owns both sides of the transaction, harvests rich spending data, and has built an ecosystem rivals can’t replicate.

The Real Question

In a recession, yes—card spending could crater and credit losses spike. But if you’re holding for a decade? This quiet mega-bet has the DNA of a 10x winner waiting to happen.

Buffett’s portfolio commentary isn’t always his words. Sometimes it’s the positions he refuses to trim.