# Quantum Computing Hype vs Reality: Why Your $10K Investment Might Not Turn Into $1M

Quantum stocks are getting hammered—down 25% from peaks, yet everyone's buzzing about life-changing returns. But here's the plot twist: even in best-case scenarios, the math doesn't add up.

Take IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave (pure plays with no backup business). If one captured the entire $15-30B quantum processing unit market by 2030-2040 at Nvidia-level margins (50%), you're looking at a $600B valuation. That's only 100x returns from today's price—what you'd need to turn $10K into $1M.

But there's a bigger problem: legacy tech like Alphabet and IBM have unlimited R&D budgets. They're not trying to build quantum—they're trying to dominate it. When they do, pure-play startups? Squeezed out.

The real wild card? IonQ's CEO claims QPUs could eventually replace GPUs. If true, we're talking about disrupting Nvidia's $5T market. But that's sci-fi territory right now. Quantum still hasn't proven commercial relevance.

Bottom line: This sector is high-risk, high-reward, but the odds of picking the winner are brutal. Most will be losers. If you're hunting quantum exposure, legacy players like Alphabet look safer than gambling on pure plays.