Li mining stocks performance review in the first half of 2025: investment opportunities after the big dump?

The recent fall in lithium prices is indeed quite severe. Battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped to $8,329/ton at the end of June, hitting a four-year low, and lithium hydroxide hasn't escaped either. What's the problem? The supply side has exploded—new production capacities are concentrated in China, Australia, Argentina, and Africa, with an expected surplus of 260,000 tons by 2025.

But this is not bad news. Fastmarkets analyst Paul Lusty put it well: short-term fluctuations are just that, but the long-term logic hasn't changed—the energy transition, AI expansion, and climate goals are all driving the demand for lithium. Coupled with the uncertainty of Trump's policies impacting investor sentiment, it is now actually an opportunity for long-term players to get in.

Data Highlights:

In Canada, NOA Lithium Brines has risen 58.82% this year, mainly due to the discovery of water sources in Argentina's Lithium Triangle, which adds leverage to the planned capacity of 20,000 tons/year for the Rio Grande project.

The financing for the Thacker Pass project of Lithium Americas in the USA is in place (250 million dollars), with GM as a partner providing support, aiming for production in 2027. This is the largest known lithium resource currently in North America.

Jindalee Lithium in Australia has seen the largest increase (123%), and the McDermitt project has been approved for the Fast-41 program, meaning the U.S. has classified it as a critical mineral project, and the approval process will be expedited. Liontown Resources' Kathleen Valley mine has already started production, marking the launch of Western Australia's first underground lithium mining operation.

Key Signal: Although lithium prices are difficult to rebound in the short term, capacity release, technological breakthroughs (DLE direct lithium extraction technology is being advanced), and policy support are reshaping the industry pattern. Companies with financing and project progress still have potential.