An Overview of the Top Ten Emerging Markets in the World: What Makes These Countries Worth Following?

Question

The concept of emerging markets has been popular for 40 years, and now these ten countries contribute 31% of the global GDP.

The Asian Triad Leads the Way: China's GDP is expected to reach 19.37 trillion USD in 2023 (accounting for 18.43% of the global share), while India is set to surpass Japan by 2028 to become the third largest economy in the world, increasing from 3.76 trillion to 5.57 trillion. The growth drivers of these two countries are completely different—China relies on exports + real estate recovery, while India relies on consumption upgrade + infrastructure investment.

The Two Powerhouses of Latin America Each Face Challenges: Brazil is the engine of Latin America, with an estimated GDP of 2.08 trillion in 2023, projected to reach eighth in the world by 2028. The problem is that corruption scandals and inflation are dragging it down, wasting its economic potential. Mexico, while being the second-largest economy in Latin America, has only an average annual growth rate of 2% over the past 30 years since the signing of NAFTA, far below other emerging markets, due to a very high rate of informal labor.

High-tech Responsibility: South Korea and Taiwan are the shining lights of technology in Asia. South Korea has transformed from the ruins of war into a trillion-dollar economy and is now the 12th largest economy in the world; Taiwan's “Taiwan Miracle” has turned the island nation into a hub for the semiconductor industry (with companies like TSMC and MediaTek).

Dark Horses in the Middle East + Europe: Saudi Arabia is striving for diversification with petrodollars, with a 4.8% growth in non-oil industries in 2022; Turkey, despite inflation soaring above 40% in 2023, is expected to mitigate the earthquake impact through reconstruction; Poland is the most resilient economy in Europe, with 25 years of stable growth supported by EU funds, and is projected to join the trillion-dollar club by 2028.

Bottom line: Although these ten countries face common challenges such as global economic slowdown and high inflation, their growth engines vary. If you want to bottom-fish in emerging markets, you need to refine the specific drivers for each country, rather than treating them all the same.