The S&P 500 has just triggered a rare technical signal not seen in 18 years.

After reaching a peak of 6890.89 on October 28, the index has fallen by 5.1%, breaking the 50-day moving average for the first time last week—this level has not been breached since the end of April, remaining above the moving average for 198 consecutive days, the longest since 2007.

What does historical data say? After the last three similar long-term breakouts, the S&P 500 averaged an additional increase of 8%. But this time is a bit different—macroeconomic signals are deteriorating: employment growth has stalled, consumer confidence is declining, and auto loan delinquency rates are rising.

The more heartbreaking aspect is the valuation. The CAPE ratio (inflation-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now at its second highest in history, second only to the eve of the 2000 dot-com bubble burst.

Conclusion? There's no need to panic on the technical side; historically, such breakouts are usually not a bear market signal. However, high valuations + economic uncertainty = more volatility awaits ahead. Don't go all-in, but also don't completely avoid it; observe a few more indicators before making a judgment.