LiDAR Chip War: Who Can Break the Deadlock Faster, AEVA or LAZR?

LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) technology is entering a substantial commercialization phase. Aeva Technologies and Luminar Technologies, the two major players, are both working on the same goal – providing vision for autonomous driving and industrial applications – but their approaches differ significantly.

What is the story of AEVA?

This company uses FMCW (Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave) technology, with the core advantage of being able to capture speed and depth data in real time, adding an extra dimension compared to traditional ToF (Time of Flight) solutions.

Recent major move: A Fortune 500 tech company has pledged to invest $50 million in support (of which $32.5 million is equity + $17.5 million in manufacturing support) and is preparing to become a secondary supplier for a global TOP 10 automotive company. This is not a trivial matter; the management has also revealed a letter of intent, suggesting that production orders may surface by the end of 2025.

More importantly, AEVA is mining the gold mine in the industrial market. The Eve 1 precision sensor has over 1,000 orders and collaborates with industrial leaders like SICK and LMI, whose combined annual market capacity is approximately 2 million units. AEVA's goal is to reach an annual production capacity of 100,000 units by the end of 2025.

Data Overview: YTD increase of 240%, but the valuation PE is close to 31.6 times forward sales - this number means that the market has priced in many stories in advance. Analysts predict an EPS improvement of 21.7% in 2025, and a further improvement of 12.2% in 2026.

What is LAZR playing?

Luminar is taking a different approach: first, fix the balance sheet, then charge ahead. By repurchasing $50 million of 2026 convertible bonds, along with obtaining $200 million in liquidity support from institutional financing sources, they now hold approximately $400 million in total liquidity, reducing debt to $135 million—this buys them the ease of not lacking funds at least until the end of 2026.

The shift on the product side is also worth noting. Luminar is transitioning from multiple systems to a single Halo platform, and customer feedback indicates that OEMs are actively migrating from the old Iris system. The reason is straightforward: Halo promises faster onboarding, lower costs, and easier mass production. Prototypes are already in the hands of customers, and the official release is expected at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

In terms of cooperation, Luminar's lidar has already been running on the Volvo EX90 mass-produced vehicle, and will soon be on the ES90 – currently, there are very few companies worldwide that can say this. Additionally, there is a collaboration with Caterpillar on off-road trucks to validate solutions for harsh environments like quarries.

Data Overview: YTD down 31%, but the PE is only 1.6 times the forward sales - ridiculously cheap. Analysts predict its EPS will improve by 53.6% in 2025, and by another 7.5% in 2026, with a greater improvement than AEVA.

Essential Differences

How to choose?

AEVA bets on whether high growth and diversified breakthroughs can be realized on schedule; LAZR bets on whether the big company, though currently out of favor, can really break the deadlock with Halo. The former earns a narrative premium, while the latter profits from valuation recovery. Both are high-risk products, but the betting points are different.

Both currently hold Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), but if you have to choose, ask yourself whether you want this year's excitement or next year's turnaround.