Bitcoin Attempts to Break Through Early-Year Price... Two Conditions for a "Real Rebound"

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: Bitcoin attempts to break through early-year price… “Two conditions” for a real rebound Original Link: Bitcoin is rebounding from recent lows, testing its early-year price range and major resistance levels. While technical rebounds have been supported by whale buying and new order inflows, analysts say that key confirmation signals are still lacking to declare the start of a real bull market.

On the weekly chart, in the first week of December, Bitcoin has recovered to the low $93,000 range, up about 3%. The current price is simultaneously testing the early 2025 level ($93,080) and the 50-week moving average (MA), while the relative strength index (RSI) is facing resistance at 41.5.

Analysts point out, “Although Bitcoin is rebounding from a short-term low, the conditions for a ‘true recovery phase’ have not yet been met.” They explain that both of the following conditions must be satisfied to consider a full bullish reversal: the weekly RSI must close above 41.5, and the weekly close must be above the 50-week moving average.

Another signal market participants are watching is the change in the spot order book (Order Book). One analytics firm noted, “A new bid ladder (bid ladder, large buy order zone) has formed in the BTC/USDT pair on one exchange.” On the chart, a massive liquidity buy wall is observed in the low- to mid-$80,000 range, which could act as a short-term price support.

“Such liquidity placement could initially provide upward momentum to the price,” the firm noted, “but Bitcoin still hasn’t broken through its early-year resistance level, and there are no definitive technical signals at this time.” However, the continued buying by whale (large order) accounts and the absence of significant sell walls in the short term are seen as positive supply-demand factors.

With a mix of chart-based analysis and order book supply-demand changes, experts advise that a “confirmation buy” strategy is more valid than a “preemptive buy” while waiting for technical confirmation signals.

“While you may miss out on some gains waiting for confirmation signals, it’s more important to reduce long-term loss risk,” one expert emphasized. They added, “If Bitcoin is eventually heading for a seven-figure (million-dollar) target, missing a few percent profit now is not a big issue.”

Meanwhile, since dipping to the low $85,000 range at the end of November, Bitcoin has continued its short-term rebound, with whale buying and lack of major sell walls driving the recent upward movement.