#ETH走势分析 I've been keeping an eye on the big holders' cost basis lately and made a pretty interesting discovery. The ETH whales who've been accumulating have an average entry price right around 2789. If you look at the historical price action, on September 21, the price bounced up as soon as it touched that line; then, on December 1 last month, it tested it again and the reaction was even stronger, shooting straight up.



Now the question is—if there's a third retest, will it break through? My take is this: as long as the overall market keeps rising, the cost basis line will keep moving up too. Even if there's a correction and another retest, the odds of it breaking down are actually pretty low. In fact, the third touch could be a good setup opportunity.

But you need to pay attention to the rhythm. If after the third retest the price rebounds but then quickly drops back again, that's the real warning signal. Based on this logic, ETH is highly likely to follow $BTC with a decent run in the near future. Of course, that's assuming $BTC doesn't drop the ball. $ETH $BNB
ETH-1.09%
BTC-1.6%
BNB-1.43%
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HashBanditvip
· 12-04 13:33
ngl, that 2789 support line is giving me mining flashbacks... back when i actually made money lol. but real talk, if whales keep accumulating on bounces, gas fees are gonna get ridiculous again and nobody's talking about it. where's the L2 adoption metrics when you need them? ETH's hitting resistance but TPS bottleneck hits different when you're actually paying 50 gwei per transaction.
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DevChivevip
· 12-04 11:00
2789 is indeed a strong line, the whales won't let go. Waiting for the third time again, it always feels so mysterious. If BTC drops the ball, all our efforts will be in vain. The logic here is basically betting that BTC won't crash. The whales' cost line can move, don't think of it as fixed. If it drops back hard in a short time, it’s definitely risky—we need to watch the pace. Feels like it's time to make a move again, but I still feel uneasy.
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WenMoon42vip
· 12-04 10:59
It feels like the 2789 line has been talked about to death; the real test still depends on BTC's performance.
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quietly_stakingvip
· 12-04 10:51
That 2789 line really has some magic, is it going to retest again? But honestly, it can't break on the third try, you can tell from the whales' attitude. If BTC fails, I'll just quit the scene, seriously.
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BankruptcyArtistvip
· 12-04 10:42
I've been watching this 2789 line for a long time, that's where the whales' cost is. Will it really break directly on the third retest? I doubt it, as long as BTC keeps rising, it's fine. But if it bounces for the third time and then crashes again, that's when we really need to run.
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MemeKingNFTvip
· 12-04 10:36
The 2789 line is the whale's bottom line. To put it bluntly, it's all about whether it can hold. The rhythm of retail investors trying to catch the bottom is coming back again. I just want to ask, will there be such a fierce rebound for the third time? BTC not dropping the ball? Bro, that's your premise, but it's already dropping. After three consecutive retests and then a dump, I've seen this move before—classic trick to cut retail investors. The cost line rises with the overall market... To put it nicely, it just means you've become numb after getting cut.
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Don_tGiveUpUntilThevip
· 12-04 10:31
I'm out, I'm out.
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