#美联储降息预测

Core View: Rate cuts are highly priced in; after the event, a "sell the news" pullback may occur, but mid- to long-term expectations of liquidity easing will support risk assets.

1. Market Expectations Analysis
The CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of over 84% for a 25BP rate cut in December, which the market has already priced in. Recent CPI and employment data have been moderate, giving the Fed room to maneuver. However, it is important to note that the dot plot's guidance for the 2024 path is more significant than the rate cut itself—if the tone is hawkish, it may trigger short-term profit-taking.

2. Impact Logic on the Crypto Market
· Short-term (within 24H after the decision): If the rate cut occurs as expected, BTC/ETH may spike and then pull back. Liquidity-sensitive assets (such as MEMEs and high-beta altcoins) will see increased volatility.
· Mid-term (2024Q1): Expectations of a decline in real interest rates will be strengthened, and coupled with progress on spot ETF approvals, this may guide traditional capital to enter crypto through compliant channels. Core assets like ETH/BTC may see their center of gravity rise.
· Related Market Signals: Watch if the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls below 102 and how steep the US Treasury yield curve becomes; these will amplify crypto’s macro attributes.

3. Recent Trading Strategy Reference
· For holders: Prior to the decision, partially take profits on aggressive positions, while keeping core holdings (such as ETH/BTC spot).
· Hedging: Consider going long on volatility (such as buying options) to handle immediate fluctuations after the decision.
· Focus on sector rotation: If market sentiment remains positive after the rate cut, focus on narratives with strong fundamentals and clarity, such as L2 and RWA tracks.

Risk Warning: If rates are unexpectedly held steady, the market may interpret this as a stronger-than-expected determination to fight inflation, and risk assets could drop by 5% or more. It is recommended to set stop-losses in advance.