12.10 ETH Early Morning Market Analysis

Consolidation and Game Theory Before the Fed Decision, Key Levels Determine Direction

ETH is currently in a high-level consolidation breakout phase in the short term. The core opportunity lies in a confirmed breakout of the 3240-3300 resistance zone, while the main risk stems from liquidity contraction and leveraged liquidation pressure ahead of the Fed decision.

II. Technical Anchors

- Core resistance: 3295-3310 (previous rebound high overlapping with intraday sentiment resistance level), strong resistance at 3350 (daily rebound trend suppression line)
- Key support: 3220-3230 (4-hour Bollinger Band midline), strong support at 3180 (recent consolidation range upper boundary conversion level), extreme support at 3150 (bullish trend defense line)
- Reversal signal zone: Hourly close above 3310 is considered a strong short-term reversal. Breaking below 3180 initiates a correction cycle.

III. Risk Warning

- Avoid blindly chasing longs before breaking above 3295-3310, as this zone is fiercely contested and prone to false breakouts and traps.
- Do not ignore the critical support at 3180; if breached, promptly reduce positions to avoid accelerating correction toward 3180-3150.
- Ahead of the Fed decision (03:00 Beijing time), strictly set stop-losses for high-leverage trades to prevent flash crashes and liquidations after data release.
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