DXY $(индекс США)

The dollar index has been spinning at 99 points for several sessions - this is the area of local support and five-week lows. The market has almost completely priced in the Fed's rate cut this week and is gently pushing the dollar down, which supports gold, the euro and risk assets, according to Reuters.

It is important to note here:

DXY growth = pressure on stocks and crypto assets;
a weaker dollar = easier conditions for high-risk assets and, as a rule, support for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Below are the basic options for the movement of the index for the next week.
Scenario A – Support Protection and Upward Bounce

Idea: the zone of current lows holds, the market uses the Fed meeting as an excuse for a technical rebound in the dollar.

Signs of formation:

holding the area of the last lows without a confident breakout;
the Fed's reaction is softer than expected: either less emphasis on future cuts or more cautious Powell's rhetoric;
growth in US Treasury bond yields after the data release.

Then the index may go into an upward correction in order to test the upper limit of the range of recent weeks and partially "squeeze" excessive shorts in the dollar out of the market. For the crypto market, this is a moderate headwind scenario: a sharp collapse is not necessary, but it will be difficult to continue the rally against the backdrop of a strengthening DXY.
Scenario B – 98.5-100 flat and "standby"

A more neutral option: the Fed is doing exactly what futures are waiting for, without surprises, and new inflation/labor market data does not unsettle the market. In this case, the DXY continues to "saw" in a narrow range around 99, with frequent false carryovers up and down.

Signs of implementation:

lack of momentum upon the Fed's decision, a quick return to the corridor after the first reaction;
the structure of candlesticks with long tails and small bodies on the day/4H;
neutral dynamics for the major pairs EURUSD/GBPUSD/USDJPY.

For us, this scenario means that the currency background does not prevent us from trading crypto assets for our setups: there is neither strong support nor strong pressure from the dollar, the market lives with local stories and ETF flows.
Scenario C – Support breakout and acceleration of the decline

A bearish scenario for the dollar and the most "pleasant" for high-risk assets. Here, the DXY does not hold the current support, goes below the important 98.5-98.6 zone and anchors below it. Such a move is possible if:

The Fed not only cuts rates, but also clearly indicates a willingness to ease further;
new data on inflation and the consumer price index confirm a slowdown in the economy;
the market is reinforcing expectations of a series of rate cuts in 2026, according to Reuters.

In this case, the index opens the way to deeper support levels, and the antagonistic currencies (евро, the pound, иена) get room for growth. For crypto assets, such a setup usually means an increase in the risk-off mode: against the backdrop of a soft dollar, bullish scenarios for bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are easier to implement.
Total

In this context, it is important to consider:

follow the DXY's reaction to the Fed's support and rhetoric: this is a background indicator that sets the tone for the entire risk block;
we do not try to guess the exact path — we work with already formed scenarios and reactions to key levels in the charts above;
For crypto assets, it is not the level of the index itself that is important, but the direction: a stable dollar puts pressure on them, a weakening dollar creates a window of opportunity for continued growth.