maybe

My friend recently asked me: You’re so optimistic about ASTER, do you really believe it could become the next BNB? If you’re so confident, why keep adding to your position?

My answer is: I have no certainty at all. Honestly, ASTER could completely go to zero.

His expression at the time was a bit hard to hide—since it could go to zero, why bother buying more?

At first glance, this question seems reasonable; upon reflection, it’s clear that the person asking has somewhat mythologized investing.

Whether trading cryptocurrencies or stocks, no one can achieve a 100% success rate. Even Warren Buffett can’t. Plus, the risks in crypto are obviously greater than in stocks. In the stock market, there are safe-haven options like blue-chip stocks; in the crypto world? BTC itself carries a theoretical risk of going to zero, let alone latecomers like ASTER.

But that’s exactly the charm of crypto assets—their potential returns can far surpass traditional stock markets.

The key question is this: I’m not sure ASTER will definitely be the 2017 BNB. So, flipping the question around—those who are bearish on ASTER, are you 100% certain it’s worthless? Or, do you really dare to guarantee that, seven years from now, ASTER won’t become someone else’s BNB?

There’s actually a game of probability hidden here. Suppose the chance of ASTER becoming an asset on the level of BNB is only 1%. That seems very low. But if you only invest 0.5 to 1 USDT and give it seven years?

Look at the growth trajectories of BTC, ETH, BNB—achieving 1000x to 10,000x increases within seven years. Even with the most conservative target of 1000x, a 1% success probability isn’t low at all.

Using 100 yuan to buy 100 ASTER tokens, if successful, you could become a millionaire. Invest 1000 yuan, and you might reach assets worth tens of millions. That kind of odds justifies giving it a try.

Some might say, ASTER has strong backing with good concepts, and well-known industry figures are involved and holding positions. Honestly, even if these are all superficial—if ASTER is truly just air—then from a pure probability perspective, this gamble is still worth taking.

Just look at history. What was DOGE back in the day? An infinite inflation joke, giving you a hundred million coins was considered a waste of space. But after seven years, how many millionaires did it create?

Later, SHIB was even more outrageous—launched with a trillion tokens, everyone thought it was dead on arrival, with no fundamentals supporting it. And what happened? An investor bought in with 7000 yuan, held for 400 days, and ended up with an account showing 14.5 billion. That’s a lesson SHIB taught the market.

It demonstrated a profound truth: sometimes, the consensus of fools can change the market. I never consider myself a wise investor; trading derivatives often leads to liquidation. But I am very clear on one thing: in crypto, the logic of small long-term holdings generating excess returns is valid.

Now, ASTER is right in front of us. With just 1000 yuan principal, a 7-year cycle, and a 1% success probability, you could achieve financial freedom. Is there still any need to hesitate?