#数字资产市场动态 Shorting opportunities for NEAR emerge: Risks have accumulated based on liquidation distribution and funding rates

Recently, I’ve noticed that the short-term shorting logic for NEAR looks quite good. The price is around $1.475 (corresponding to an FDV of $1.89B), currently in a clear downtrend channel, with open interest still shrinking, which usually indicates that longs are gradually exiting.

First, let’s discuss the market structure. Regarding funding rates, most exchanges maintain a positive rate of +0.01% (OKX is at -0.01%), a positive rate means longs need to pay shorts, reflecting a clearly bearish market from the rate perspective. The 24-hour liquidation data also shows pressure: long liquidations amount to $68k (62%), while shorts are only $42k (38%), indicating longs are being squeezed quite hard.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook is also not optimistic. The daily EMA12 is at $1.527, which is 3.4% above the current price; the daily SMA200 is at $2.372, meaning NEAR is down 38% relative to its long-term moving average. This downtrend channel has not yet been broken, and no reversal signals are visible in the short term. The 1-hour RSI is at 49.1, slightly weak and neutral; MACD at -0.0009 shows weak bearish momentum but it’s still there. On the 4-hour chart, RSI at 46.6 indicates weakness, and although MACD is positive (+0.0016), the momentum is clearly insufficient.

The token’s fundamentals also face pressure. NEAR has a total supply of 1.283B, with a continuous linear unlock mechanism that, although moderate in release speed, always causes dilution effects, creating ongoing selling pressure.

The biggest advantage of shorting lies in liquidation distribution. In the $1.40 range, there are $820k of long liquidations (totaling $5.73M), and at $1.32, $443k (totaling $6.92M). This forms a fairly deep liquidation pool below. Once the price falls below the key level of $1.47, long liquidations will be triggered gradually, potentially cascading down to $1.40 or even $1.32. In contrast, above $1.52, there is $1.42M of short liquidation accumulation, which means breaking upward from here will be quite difficult.

**The specific trading framework** is as follows: enter the position in the $1.48-$1.52 range (waiting for a rebound to this resistance zone), with leverage of 5-7x to control risk. First take profit at $1.40, second at $1.32, and set stop-loss at $1.58 (exit if the 4-hour key resistance is broken).

Entry conditions require three simultaneous criteria: first, the price rebounds to $1.48-$1.50 but the 1-hour RSI does not break above 58 (indicating weak rebound); second, the 1-hour MACD histogram continues to expand from -0.0009 to below -0.0020, or the price closes below the 4-hour EMA12 at $1.479 (a sign of reinforced moving average resistance); third, the 4-hour stochastic %K crosses downward through %D, or the daily MACD crosses below the signal line (a higher timeframe bearish reversal signal).

Risk points to watch: the daily RSI at 36.6 is approaching oversold, which could trigger a technical rebound to $1.52-$1.55, so don’t get shaken out prematurely; additionally, NEAR has some progress in privacy and DeFi ecosystems, and related news could temporarily stimulate buying. Therefore, using 5-7x leverage allows participation while avoiding forced liquidations from oversold rebounds.