Key signals to watch in the crypto market in late December.

Tomorrow marks a historic level of Bitcoin options expiration—$23.6 billion in notional value coming due. As market makers gradually unwind their hedging positions, short-term volatility could spike sharply. Interestingly, the current BTC volatility is only 2.01%, at a six-month low, which often indicates suppressed volatility before a major move. If the price tests the $80,000 to $82,000 range, it could become a critical window for a short-term rebound.

On the funding side, the US spot ETF continues to bleed. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $175.3 million, and Ethereum ETF outflows reached $52.8 million. Although it seems a bit cold, the funding rate indicates market sentiment is slowly recovering. However, in this narrow range of fluctuations, the bearish voices still dominate.

Even more interesting are the whale movements. Trend Research currently holds 645,000 ETH, with an average entry price of $3,299, and an unrealized loss of $242 million. Under this pressure of floating losses, this institution has not only avoided stop-losses but also publicly announced it is reserving $1 billion to continue buying on dips, claiming that the current level is the bottom and optimistic about a major rally in 2026.

This is a typical case of large funds holding on in extreme pessimism. The three signals—options expiration volatility, ETF outflows, whale accumulation—are all happening simultaneously, indicating the market is at a delicate crossroads.