The vision of an increase by one of the major institutions from $10 billion in ETH, only one phrase came to mind: retail investors will return to raise funds again.

Over the past three months, I discovered a very painful rule — as soon as this institution appears and announces loudly, we should question ETH's movement, and perhaps see a decline. But this time? Many still hear the word "increase" and follow it immediately at the $2,940 level.

Why am I not very excited? After reviewing on-chain data, I realized that this institution started accumulating in early November when ETH was around $3,400, and until now, it has bought nearly 580,000 ETH units, invested about $1.72 billion, with an average purchase cost of $3,208. Now, with a price of $2,940, it shows a paper loss of $141 million. And the harshest part? They used leverage — borrowed 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double the leverage.

Many people see this and put all their money in, but we need to clarify something: institutional increases do not necessarily mean a downward signal.

What’s the difference? Institutions can withstand temporary losses, but retail investors cannot. Institutions manage assets exceeding $10 billion, with only 17% of those assets allocated to ETH. Even if ETH drops by 50%, the total loss would be about 8.5%. But retail investors? They put all their money in, possibly use leverage, and if ETH drops by 20%, their accounts could go bankrupt immediately.

Another very painful point: institutions play the waiting game, while retail investors play the fast-food game.

They build their positions over two months, while retail investors read one tweet and buy immediately, and the next day when the price drops to $2,800, they start to panic. Institutions calculate cycles, and retail investors wait for tomorrow’s rise, and that’s the fundamental difference.

And I’ll say something that might not be comfortable: institutional increases are sometimes just marketing.

Historically, stories of major collapses in the crypto market and project crashes have taught us that what you see as a bottom is often just a time when they need liquidity.

Simply put: the positive news you see may be a signal for them to enter the market.

Your three realistic questions: Are these funds really unused funds? Can you monitor them as they drop another 30% without tension? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, don’t make a decision.

And if you decide to participate, don’t blindly follow institutional conclusions, learn from their strategy. For example, if you have 100,000 SAR to buy ETH, don’t buy all at once; buy 30% at the current price, if it drops 10%, buy another 30%, and keep 40% for the final stages.

And finally, you should have a red line: if you bought at $2,940, and the price starts dropping to $2,500, exit. It’s not shameful to make mistakes; what matters is preserving your capital, and when the real bottom is reached, you can buy again.

Remember this last sentence: institutional increases are just an offer, not a reference for you. Your task is not to participate in this offer, but to stay alive until you see the next round.$BTC