There are two possible logical scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement.

Scenario One's core assumption:

BTC will rebound during Q1 and Q2, but this will be a dead cat bounce, ultimately establishing the first bear market low at the end of Q2. The altcoin season during this phase will be relatively short and limited in performance. Subsequently, a second round of correction will occur, and the third bear market bottom will be at a lower level.

Scenario Two's core assumption:

The entire re-accumulation cycle has a different structural pattern, with significant differences in rebound magnitude and time window, and the final bear market bottom will also differ.

Comparing the two scenarios, the key variables are: how far the rebound can go during Q1-Q2, the participation level of altcoins, and whether the third bear cycle can break through previous lows.

From the perspective of the 3-month chart, both scenarios are within possible frameworks. The market's ultimate path will depend on the specific performance after the Spring Festival. Short-term investors should pay attention to breakout signals during these key time windows.