On the macro liquidity front, the market is at a crossroads. The Federal Reserve stopped quantitative tightening (QT) in early December and instead launched the "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMPs) program, injecting about $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds into the market each month. Many analysts interpret this move as a form of "hidden quantitative easing."

According to prediction analysis by Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer of a trading platform, the first quarter of 2026 will be a watershed moment. If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at current levels during this period and the RMPs program does not continue, risk assets may face pressure—Bitcoin could retreat to the $70,000 range, and Ethereum might fall to around $2,400.

Conversely, if liquidity injection continues, the situation would be entirely different. Under this easing expectation, Bitcoin is expected to surge to between $92,000 and $98,000. Ethereum is even more interesting; thanks to the maturity of Layer 2 scaling technologies and the rising attractiveness of the DeFi ecosystem, it could rise to around $3,600.

The driving force behind this rally is also quite clear. Over $50 billion in ETF funds continue to flow into the crypto market, coupled with ongoing accumulation by institutional investors. All these factors provide solid support for risk asset prices. In simple terms, liquidity is the game rule—without liquidity, market trends can be significantly different.