Watching the offshore RMB fluctuate again on the market app, the U族 holding U instantly fell into anxiety. When the exchange rate was 7.35 at the beginning of the year, 7.35 million RMB could exchange for 1 million USD; now, with the exchange rate back around 7, exchanging the same 1 million USD only requires 7 million RMB—those who bought in at the start of the year have seen their USD holdings convert back to RMB shrink by 350,000 out of thin air. From another perspective, this amount of money is enough to cover the down payment for a house in second- or third-tier cities, no wonder everyone is panicking.

But what truly deserves attention are the market signals hidden behind this. Many traders only focus on the immediate gains and losses from the exchange rate, actually overlooking the underlying logic between exchange rate fluctuations and crypto assets. According to industry analysis, a continuous RMB appreciation often creates room for the central bank’s policy adjustments—appreciation indicates a relatively stable domestic economy, and policy measures tend to loosen accordingly. Historically, whenever liquidity policies are relaxed, risk assets including the crypto market tend to seize opportunities.

Deeper still is the change in capital flows triggered by exchange rate volatility. When the RMB appreciates, the central bank usually buys USD to maintain exchange rate stability, and these USD inflows further promote domestic liquidity release. Simply put, a strengthening exchange rate may signal that the macro environment is making room for risk assets—this is often an overlooked positive signal for the crypto market.