Bitcoin trend based on ETF capital flows: Why has IBIT become an important indicator for institutions to assess market conditions?

According to the latest data from SoSoValue, as of December 2025, IBIT’s cumulative net inflow has reached 62.2 billion USD, making it one of the main channels through which TradFi funds enter the Bitcoin market via ETFs.

IBIT, as the largest Bitcoin spot ETF in the US market, is issued by global asset management giant BlackRock. Among all Bitcoin spot ETFs, IBIT leads in size, liquidity, and institutional participation. Therefore, its ETF capital flows are becoming an important reference indicator for observing the medium- to long-term trends of Bitcoin.

The significance of BlackRock and Bitcoin ETF

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset management company, managing assets exceeding 9 trillion USD. When BlackRock launches and continuously operates IBIT, a Bitcoin spot ETF, it essentially means that Bitcoin has been officially incorporated into the traditional financial ETF allocation system, with investors mainly including pension funds, insurance funds, and large institutional accounts.

Unlike retail investors directly buying coins, ETF capital inflows and outflows are often more trend-oriented and risk-managed, so the flow of Bitcoin ETFs more accurately reflects TradFi’s true attitude towards market phases.

The phased relationship between Bitcoin prices and IBIT ETF flows

Reviewing the historical data of IBIT ETF shows a high correlation between its capital changes and Bitcoin price movements.

Before December 19, 2024, IBIT generally maintained daily net inflows. At that time, Bitcoin prices had been oscillating above $100,000 for a long period, and Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract incremental funds, with high risk appetite among institutions.

As Bitcoin experienced stagnation above $100,000, IBIT ETF first showed sustained net outflows, followed by Bitcoin prices oscillating downward from high levels, ultimately falling below $80,000. During this phase, changes in ETF capital clearly led the weakening trend of prices.

Entering April 2025, Bitcoin prices stabilized and rebounded, and IBIT, this Bitcoin spot ETF, also returned to a continuous net inflow state. It can also be observed that, as Bitcoin prices continued to rise, the daily net inflow scale of IBIT ETF gradually increased, reflecting institutional accumulation behavior after trend confirmation.

Until October 2025, after Bitcoin prices broke through $120,000 and turned downward, IBIT ETF again entered a sustained net outflow state, accompanying Bitcoin prices falling back to around the current $80,000.

The core signals revealed by ETF data

From IBIT’s performance, Bitcoin spot ETFs appear more like trend-following capital rather than short-term bottom-fishing funds.

When Bitcoin is in a clear upward trend, ETF capital continues to flow into IBIT;

When Bitcoin enters a high consolidation or downward phase, Bitcoin ETFs lead to net outflows, used to control overall portfolio risk.

This is also why the market often sees

“ETF outflows, but Bitcoin prices can still stabilize in the short term”

because ETF decision cycles are longer, focusing on whether the trend is confirmed, rather than intraday price movements.

The reference significance for ordinary users

For ordinary investors, the capital flows of Bitcoin ETFs should not be seen as buy/sell signals, but they are a very important trend validation tool.

When mainstream Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT continue to see net inflows, it often indicates that TradFi funds are strengthening their allocations;

When ETFs experience long-term net outflows, it warrants caution about whether the market is entering a defensive or adjustment phase.

In the current context where Bitcoin is around $80,000 and IBIT ETF still maintains net outflows, the market seems to be waiting for the next trend confirmation rather than having already entered a new one-sided rally.