#比特币价格预测 Seeing CZ's remarks, the first thing that came to my mind was the 2017 bull market. At that time, there were similar pieces of advice everywhere—"Bitcoin can reach 100,000" and "miss this wave, and you'll have no chance." Some people who invested managed to fully cash out in early 2018, but most were trapped for three years.

The logic this time seems impeccable: buy Bitcoin at $90,000 per coin with $1 million (about 11 coins). If it rises to $500,000 or $1 million per coin, the returns would far surpass the 5.2 million annual pension. But that's precisely the problem—using the most optimistic expectations to counter the certainty of a pension.

History has shown me that behind every "this time is different" argument, there lurks the risk of cyclical rotation. Bitcoin fell from $30 in 2011 to $2; from $1,000 in 2014 to just over $400; from $20,000 in 2018 to $3,600. Each time, people used the same logic to say that long-term prospects are higher. They are not wrong, but the premise is that you live long enough and have enough mental resilience.

For a 20-year-old lottery winner, a pension might indeed be a safer choice. Not because Bitcoin won't rise, but because a guaranteed cash flow often helps more with life planning than gambling. Of course, if she can invest only a part of her funds, preserving upside potential while safeguarding her base, that would be a truly smart allocation—that's the lesson I've learned over the years.