#美联储降息预期升温 Do you think the market is expecting a rate cut? Wrong. The current situation might be completely opposite to what you imagine.

Recently, the word "rate cut" has indeed been popular, but the real market bets are rapidly shifting. Just look at these data points:

Polymarket's forecast shows the probability of no rate cut in January has soared to 88%. The CME FedWatch Tool is even more definitive, with a 94.5% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged. This is not a minor adjustment; it's a dramatic reversal of the market consensus.

Moreover, this "no rate cut" betting has been strengthening over the past few days. What does this mean? In the short term, the high interest rate environment will persist longer, and the liquidity outlook for risk assets may be squeezed. Those narratives expecting macro liquidity easing will have to step back for now.

But from another perspective, this strong consensus highlights an important principle—the focus on long-term development, not being led by short-term macro trends. No matter where interest rates go, solid projects and product strength are always hard currencies. This is the most practical way to survive in a high interest rate environment.