#美联储回购协议计划 BTC 1-Hour Chart Rings Alarm Bell: Interpretation of the Rising Wedge Pattern

BTC is currently operating in a technical zone that requires close attention. An obvious rising wedge pattern has emerged on the 1-hour chart—this structure typically appears in the late stage of an upward trend and often indicates a potential trend reversal. Caution is advised in the current market performance.

Key Price Levels Overview: Life and Death Test Ahead

Resistance Zone: 90000-90500
This range is a litmus test for whether the bulls can continue upward. If the price remains blocked here, it indicates a significant weakening of upward momentum.

Intermediate Support Zone: 88500-89000
This is an important technical defense line. Once effectively broken, it is usually accompanied by pattern confirmation, greatly increasing the downside risk.

Bottom Support Level: 86355
Previous low point, representing the psychological bottom in the short term. Holding this level is crucial to maintain a high-level oscillation; failure to do so indicates a deep correction has become inevitable.

Subtle Turning Signals in Indicators

MACD shows signs of bearish divergence—higher highs while the indicator weakens, a typical bearish signal. Repeated battles around the zero line indicate fierce confrontation between bulls and bears.

RSI is in a neutral to weak state, neither entering overbought nor oversold territory, suggesting the market has yet to provide a clear directional cue.

The Bollinger Bands have visibly contracted, and trading volume is shrinking. This combination often signals that the market is brewing for a new wave of volatility—whether it breaks upward or downward depends on the upcoming price-volume action.

Three Scenario Analyses: Clear Your Mind Before Acting

📉 Highest probability of a downward break
Once the support zone of 88500-89000 is effectively broken, downward momentum will be quickly released, requiring close vigilance.

📈 Upward breakout requires sufficient volume
To stabilize above 90500, strong buying power is needed. Based on current trading volume, this is quite challenging.

↔️ Continued sideways consolidation is also possible
In this scenario, the price repeatedly tests support and resistance levels, which is a real test of traders’ patience.

Spot Holders: Conservative Defensive Strategy

Use 88500 as a short-term risk control line. As long as the price does not effectively break below this level, hold your position. If the rebound reaches the 90000-90300 zone but cannot continue upward, consider reducing your holdings to protect gains.

Trader’s Three Strategies

Strategy 1 (Bearish Entry):
Wait for the price to break below the support zone of 88500-88800 with insufficient rebound strength. Enter short position after confirmation; this offers a relatively high win rate and favorable risk-reward ratio.

Strategy 2 (Bullish Entry):
Consider only at two specific moments: first, when the price near 86500 shows a clear reversal candlestick pattern; second, when a volume breakout occurs and stabilizes above 90500. Outside these conditions, trading against the trend is too risky.

Strategy 3 (Most Conservative Choice):
Hold a no-position stance. Wait for unambiguous directional signals from the market. Short if it breaks below 88500, and go long if it breaks above 90500. Avoid blindly participating during choppy price oscillations in the middle range.

Overall, this is a situation that requires "waiting." The final market direction has not been fully confirmed, and rushing into trades may lead to pitfalls. Patience and discipline are key—let the market speak for itself. $BTC $ETH