Recently, many people in the crypto circle have been discussing the delivery date market, and this topic indeed warrants a deep dive.

Let's look at the data. Over the one and a half years from the end of 2023 to the end of 2024, five major futures deliveries have almost always been accompanied by significant price fluctuations. This is not a coincidence; there is a logical basis behind it.

Before delivery, the market usually exhibits two extreme behaviors: either repeatedly oscillating within a narrow range or experiencing large swings to shake out traders. But when the delivery moment arrives, the situation often reverses. After the March delivery, Bitcoin quickly surged to $70,000; in December, it directly broke through the $80,000 threshold. Why does this happen? Essentially, delivery releases the pressure of accumulated hedge positions. Before delivery, market participants build opposite positions to hedge risks; after the delivery expires, these hedges are closed, releasing pressure instantly, which can lead to rapid price breakthroughs.

From a more macro perspective, delivery days become key points of contention between bulls and bears, often triggering intense volatility in the short term. However, it’s important to note that delivery impacts short-cycle market movements; the long-term trend is still primarily determined by halving cycles, policy factors, and other fundamentals.

So how should traders approach this pattern? A few suggestions:

**Maintain rational judgment**—Don’t demonize delivery days. Short-term volatility is normal. Monitoring Federal Reserve policy trends and mainstream ETF fund flows will be more helpful than believing in various rumors.

**Manage positions carefully**—If there is obvious pressure before delivery, consider taking smaller positions to lurk and wait for breakout signals before adding. This is a relatively safer way to participate and avoid being caught in a trap.

**Use the pattern flexibly**—Most of the time after delivery this year, prices rose, but the June delivery broke the pattern and continued to retrace. Historical data has reference value, but it shouldn’t be rigidly applied; adjustments should be made based on the current market structure dynamics.

Delivery day is just a node in the market cycle. Understanding its mechanism can help find opportunities amid volatility. Don’t get dizzy from short-term ups and downs; maintaining sound risk control is the key.