2025-12-26 07:26:13

Regarding the "Federal Reserve rate cut expectations," the market's true sentiment may be completely different from what you've heard.

This topic has indeed been hot lately, but actual market bets show that expectations are not warming up; instead, they are sharply cooling down. Look at these data points and you'll understand—

Polymarket's forecast indicates that the probability of no rate cut in January has risen to 88%. The CME FedWatch Tool is even more extreme, with a 94.5% chance of holding rates steady. More importantly, this "no rate cut" expectation has been strengthening in recent days.

What does this mean for the market? In the short term, "high interest rates will persist longer" has become the new consensus. The liquidity imagination space for risk assets may be squeezed, and the story of macro liquidity easing has temporarily receded.

But this strong consensus also reminds us of one thing: sustained value creation does not depend on short-term macro sentiment swings. Even if liquidity expectations are adjusting, projects and communities that steadily advance infrastructure are still accumulating long-term value.

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AirDropMissed

· 6h ago

94.5% no rate cut? Then we're really going to be locked into high interest rates this time.

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AlgoAlchemist

· 6h ago

88% no rate cut? Bro, I was stunned when this data came out. Luckily, I didn't go all in waiting for a rate cut... The liquidity tide retreating is really painful, but on the other hand, truly technical projects are not afraid of this wave; they are actually a sharpening stone. It's the same high-interest rate maintaining this setup, hearing it makes my ears calloused. The key question is, when will there actually be a cut? Why does it feel like the market is bouncing back and forth? Yesterday, someone was praising a rate cut, and today, 94.5% of people think there will be no change... dizzy. Who survives this round of adjustments will be the winners. Junk projects should be eliminated if they need to be.

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JustHereForAirdrops

· 6h ago

When the number 94.5 came out, everyone was still waiting for a rate cut? Wake up, buddy. --- Liquidity has indeed receded, but the projects I believe in are still working hard—that's the real deal. --- Wait, is the market's true sentiment different from what I've heard? Then my judgments over the past few days might be completely wrong. --- Expectations of no rate cuts are still strengthening. High interest rates are really going to stay with us for a while. --- In simple terms, the macro trend has changed, but builders are still builders—that hasn't changed. --- Did I see the right numbers on Polymarket? The gap between 88 and 94.5 shows the market has truly shifted. --- Short-term liquidity is being squeezed, but it also clearly shows who is actually working. --- The recent cooling of rate cut expectations has been quite intense; those optimistic narratives have been completely broken. --- After listening to the story of rate cuts for so long, it turns out we overcomplicated it. The market has already reversed. --- I agree with the phrase "continue building value"; it's much more reliable than obsessing over macro data every day.

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