Christmas Eve should be a celebration for the crypto market, but what’s the reality? ETH is only hovering around $2,898, still 40% below its all-time high of $4,878. Wall Street is speculating about how much policy benefits Trump’s new administration could bring, but on-chain data and capital flows tell a different story.

In a well-known podcast, analyst Ben Cowen recently dropped a bombshell — if ETH really returns to $4,878 in 2026, it’s not the start of a new bull market, but rather a major sign of a retreat. Sounds counterintuitive, right? But his technical model shows that once speculative sentiment pushes ETH to this level, a classic double-top pattern will appear on the chart. Historically, this pattern often signals a rapid sell-off.

What does a double top mean? It suggests the price could sharply retest the $2,000 level. This isn’t a gentle correction but a real risk release. The problem is, there’s a fundamental contradiction between current market liquidity and policy direction — on one hand, funds are chasing higher prices; on the other, signs of a fundamental turning point have already appeared. This misalignment often leads to big trouble.

That said, markets have never been perfectly predictable. ETH’s trajectory depends on the interaction of policy environment, institutional moves, and the overall macro landscape. The key now is to stay vigilant and not be blinded by the rebound’s gains. If you’re considering chasing the high, maybe first think about the risk of this double-top trap.