#降息预期 The signals from this Federal Reserve meeting are indeed interesting — on the surface, the statement appears dovish, but the dot plot tells the real story. Six committee members do not expect a rate cut, which carries more weight than the two publicly dissenting voices.

Here's a simple overview of the current market disagreements:

**Hawkish signals**: The dot plot shows only one rate cut by 2026, significantly higher than the market’s expectation of two. Morgan Stanley also pointed out that stronger growth combined with sticky inflation may lead to smaller rate cuts than currently priced in. The 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4% indicates that the economic outlook remains supported.

**Dovish signals**: The committee raised growth forecasts and lowered inflation expectations, and initiated reserve purchase operations. Some analysts still see room for a 100 basis point rate cut next year, based on weak wage growth.

**On-chain implications**: These policy expectation disagreements will directly impact capital flows. If the market ultimately accepts the logic of "fewer rate cuts than expected," the appeal of risk assets will decline, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of large fund inflows and outflows. Conversely, if dovish sentiment prevails, inflows into on-chain stablecoins and outflows from exchanges will be more active.

Recently, tracking whale movements in response to this expectation shift can often lead market sentiment by 2-3 days.