"Several Brain-Teasing Thoughts About #预测市场 "

1️⃣ Besides speculation, what is the positive value of market prediction?
The core function of the stock market is value discovery:
Through price mechanisms, allocate capital to higher-value companies.
And prediction markets do something else:
Truth excavation.
They are not pricing companies,
but pricing the "probability of an event occurring."
Who is closer to the facts, who makes money.
The ultimate goal is—
to make collective cognition approach the truth faster.
2️⃣ What is the relationship between prediction and truth?
In the stock market:
Prices fluctuate around value, and long-term tend to revert to value.
In prediction markets:
Probabilities fluctuate around the truth, the closer to the event, the nearer the actual outcome.
Until the moment the event is revealed,
Prediction = Truth.
This is also why prediction markets are essentially a
Time Compressor—
folding future information into current prices in advance.
3️⃣ Is insider trading poison or cure for prediction markets?
This is a classic paradox.
On one hand:
Insider trading is unfair to ordinary participants,
but on the other hand:
Insider information can reflect the truth into the market more quickly.
Many examples have already occurred in reality:
Before the Nobel Prize announcement,
Before major policy releases,
Prediction market probabilities change dramatically in advance,
revealing results faster than the media.
From the perspective of "truth excavation,"
insider trading actually improves market efficiency.
And because of this contradiction,
Prediction market platforms and regulators
are gradually establishing more refined boundaries and rules.
4️⃣ Why do prediction markets inherently need blockchain?
This question is essentially equivalent to:
Why does finance need blockchain?
The answer is only one:
Trust.
Blockchain does not bring "decentralization" as a buzzword,
but:
Open data,
Traceable actions,
Verifiable rules.
Taking insider trading as an example:
On-chain wallets are public,
Anyone can analyze abnormal behaviors,
Many tools are already in place to identify and track suspicious addresses.
In finance,
Trust is not just a slogan, but a structure.
And blockchain precisely provides this structure for prediction markets.
5️⃣ The scale of prediction markets is just beginning
As the US gradually clears compliance obstacles,
Prediction markets are entering the eve of explosive growth.
Currently:
#Polymarket daily trading volume is about 1–2 billion USD.

In an era where "everything can be traded":
Robinhood,
Interactive Brokers,
Major institutions are quietly布局 this track.
The reason is simple:
Prediction markets are not an extension of old trading,
but a completely new "trading species."
No one wants to be overtaken in the next curve.
Final words:
What prediction markets truly trade,
is not winning or losing,
not emotions,
not even the event itself.
But—
who is closer to the truth.
When the market begins pricing the "correctness" itself,
Finance enters a whole new stage.