#降息预期 Looking at the press release and dot plot from this Federal Reserve meeting, I can't help but recall the scene back in 2015. At that time, the market was also conflicted—whether to cut interest rates or not, with a flurry of statements and data contradicting each other.

The interesting part this time lies in the surface cracks. The statement appears dovish—interest rates were cut—but behind the dot plot, the true attitude of six committee members reveals they actually don't want to cut. It's like two people saying opposite things but using the same face. The current market disagreement is also due to this—some say there could be a 100 basis point cut next year, others believe the cut will be much smaller, and some argue that the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4% is actually too low.

I've seen many moments like this. At the end of 2018, it was the same—The Fed wavered, and the market rollercoastered. In the end, what's truly important isn't the numbers themselves, but the underlying logic—how growth, inflation, and employment will actually move.

The key this time lies in what the dot plot reveals. The true expectations of the six committee members, more than their dissent votes, better indicate what they really intend to do. This is what I often say—it's about watching what policymakers are doing, not just what they say. The threshold for rate cuts has been raised, and that's a real signal. The path next year depends on whether inflation and wage growth truly align with dovish expectations or if, as Morgan Stanley suggests, stubborn inflation and strong growth will instead hinder the Fed.

From a historical perspective, this kind of uncertainty is often the greatest risk.