#通货膨胀 The Fed's rate cut this time has exposed a very critical piece of information: the market's expectations for rate cuts next year are diverging from the Federal Reserve's true intentions.

The dot plot only shows one rate cut in 2026, but the market is still fantasizing about 100 basis points. This divergence is no small matter; it reflects that inflation is far from resolved—Powell explicitly stated that inflation remains high and risks are tilted to the upside.

Having seen many such patterns in the crypto world over the years: central banks signal easing, retail investors rush in to bet on rate cuts, only for policy to shift and cut them off. This time is no different. Bitcoin surged to $94,000, then quickly retreated to $92,000. Why? Because smart people see through it— the rate cut cycle might be paused, and liquidity isn't as loose.

What we should truly be wary of is the stubbornness of inflation. The combination of strong growth and high inflation is the most dangerous, meaning the Fed is caught in the middle—neither daring to aggressively cut rates nor to stop completely. This uncertainty is most damaging to on-chain assets.

My advice is: stop blindly chasing highs. Understand the macro situation clearly before acting; it will serve you much longer than blind FOMO. Those analysts claiming "a 100 basis point rate cut soon"—just listen to them, but the Fed's actual actions are what truly matter.