## NFP (Phi Nông Nghiệp) Là Gì Và Tại Sao Nhà Đầu Tư Phải Quan Tâm?

The non-farm payrolls index (NFP) or non-agricultural data is one of the most anticipated economic reports each month in the US. However, many traders still do not fully understand how this figure impacts the market. This article will help you gain a deeper understanding of non-agricultural NFP and how to leverage it to optimize your trading strategies.

## Two Types of Non-Agricultural Data Reports: Official and Forecast

When monitoring the market, you will encounter two concepts: **large non-farm data** and **small non-farm data**.

**Official non-farm data** released by the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 or 9:30 AM EST (equivalent to 20:30 or 21:30 Vietnam time). This is a highly anticipated index worldwide, reflecting employment trends in manufacturing, construction, and service sectors.

**Forecast report** (ADP Employment Report) is published on the first Wednesday of each month at 8:00 or 9:00 AM EST. Although not an official figure, it is based on data from over 500,000 companies, providing investors with a preview of the trend before the official report is released.

## What Does the Non-Agricultural NFP Include?

The NFP index measures changes in employment numbers in the US non-agricultural sectors. It includes employees from manufacturing, construction, retail, healthcare, education, finance, and services.

**People NOT counted in NFP:**
- Farmers and agricultural workers
- Government and military personnel
- Self-employed workers
- Employees of non-profit organizations
- Independent practitioners not affiliated with a company

Despite these exceptions, non-agricultural data accounts for about 85% of the US workforce, making it the best indicator of overall labor market health.

## Why Is the Non-Agricultural Index Important?

**Role in Fed’s monetary policy**

The (Federal Reserve) uses NFP data as one of the key factors when deciding interest rate policies. If the report shows strong hiring, the Fed may raise interest rates to curb inflation. Conversely, weak data could prompt the Fed to lower rates to stimulate the economy.

**Reflects overall economic health**

When employment increases, it signals that businesses are confident in expanding operations. This leads to higher consumption (because workers have income), increased corporate profits, and more investment. Conversely, declining employment often indicates that the economy is slowing down or heading toward recession.

**Global impact**

Since the US is the world’s largest economy, any Fed decision has widespread effects. Global financial markets often react strongly after the NFP report is released.

## How to Read and Analyze NFP Data

**Exceeding or missing expectations?**

The market cares not only about the absolute number but also how it compares to forecasts. If the report exceeds expectations, it’s a positive signal for the dollar. If it falls short, it usually weakens the US currency.

**Look at long-term trends**

Professional analysts often consider the 12-month moving average rather than a single figure. A weak month does not necessarily mean the labor market is in recession if the long-term trend remains healthy.

**Combine with other indicators**

When analyzing, you should consider NFP alongside unemployment rate, average hourly wages, CPI (Consumer Price Index), and GDP. These indicators provide a more comprehensive picture of economic health.

## How Does NFP Affect Financial Markets?

**Stock Market**

Stronger-than-expected non-farm data usually causes optimism in the markets. Investors buy stocks because they believe corporate profits will increase amid strong consumer spending. However, if the report is too good, the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates faster, which could cause market tension.

**Foreign Exchange Market**

A stronger-than-expected NFP report often pushes the dollar higher as investors want to hold dollars to benefit from higher interest rates. Conversely, weak data causes the dollar to depreciate.

**Cryptocurrency Market**

Although the direct impact is less strong, a strong NFP report can still weaken cryptocurrencies. When traditional economies look good, investors tend to withdraw from high-risk assets like Bitcoin to shift into stocks or bonds. However, if the report is weak and raises fears of recession, some investors may move into cryptocurrencies as a hedge.

**Stock Indices**

Good non-farm data often drives major indices like S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones higher. Investors believe in corporate profit growth. However, if the report raises concerns about inflation or forces the Fed to hike rates, these indices may decline.

## Practical Tips for Traders

**Prepare in advance**

Don’t just watch on NFP release day. Know the forecast beforehand, inquire about recent labor trends, and develop trading plans for both scenarios: good or bad data.

**Manage risks**

The first few minutes after the report release are often very volatile. If you trade forex or indices, use stop-loss orders to protect yourself from unexpected swings.

**Avoid emotional trading**

A good NFP report does not always mean good outcomes for all markets. For example, it may be positive for the dollar but negative for gold. Always analyze the overall context before making decisions.

**Follow related reports**

Besides the official NFP, pay attention to the ADP forecast report. Although not perfect, it often helps predict the direction of the official report.

In summary, the non-farm payrolls index NFP is an indispensable tool for any market trader. By understanding how to read and analyze this data, you can make more informed investment decisions and better optimize your profit expectations.