Matrixport Research: After months of caution, Bitcoin enters a structural game phase

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Since mid-October, Bitcoin has been continuously declining, and market sentiment has clearly shifted towards caution. As the market revisits the “four-year cycle,” some traders extrapolate that 2026 may still be under pressure. However, from recent structural changes, the market is entering a new phase different from a unilateral downtrend.

In the past few months, Bitcoin has been operating in an environment characterized by volatility convergence, deleveraging, and a lack of risk appetite, with prices remaining under pressure. However, from derivatives positions, ETF fund flows, and key technical indicators, internal market structures have already begun to change. As the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history approaches, the strike price distribution is becoming an important window to observe market pressure and potential opportunities.

Low volatility and deleveraging occur simultaneously: Year-end market maintains range-bound oscillation

In recent months, Bitcoin’s implied volatility has continued to converge, with prices most likely trading within the $70,000 to $100,000 range. On one hand, there is a lack of short-term catalysts capable of pushing the market significantly out of this range, and event risks are relatively limited; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance may be less than market expectations, limiting the overall momentum of risk assets.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has previously significantly underperformed other major assets and is more likely to be used by multi-asset investors at year-end as a “tax-loss selling” tool to offset realized gains in other markets, adding additional selling pressure on prices. After the sharp decline in early October, many trading teams are still digesting prior losses, and there is limited willingness to expand risk exposure before year-end. Under the constrained risk appetite, positions and capital allocation have become more cautious, and the market overall maintains low volatility and range-bound oscillation.

Options expiration and risk budget reset: Structural turning point window approaching

On December 26, 2025, Bitcoin will face the largest options expiration in history, with approximately $17.2 billion in call options and $6.2 billion in put options settling simultaneously. From the strike price distribution, call options are mainly concentrated above $100,000, making short-term breakthroughs difficult; in contrast, around $85,000, there is a sizable open interest in put options, making this area more likely to become a price battleground before and after expiration.

Historical experience shows that year-end markets tend to be more conservative, and after entering the new year, as funds are reallocated and risk budgets are restored, the speed of sentiment reversal often exceeds expectations. The current technical structure is also changing: downside momentum is slowing marginally, but no clear consensus has formed on the upside. Against this backdrop, the market may be shifting from a “downside risk dominance” to a phase of “downside limited, upside still needing catalysts.” After the options expiration, position pressure may be temporarily released, and combined with potential ETF fund inflows and risk appetite recovery in January, there is room for market sentiment to improve.

Overall, although 2026 may still pose challenges for long-term unilateral bullishness, the research focus has begun to shift toward tactical opportunities with gradually improving risk-reward structures. Bitcoin has underperformed other major assets for several weeks, and combined with the calendar transition from year-end to early next year, related opportunities may emerge earlier than market expectations. The December 26 options expiration event is not just about mechanical settlement of contracts, but about how, after this point, market participants tend to start repositioning in anticipation of January fund inflows and risk appetite recovery. This phase may become an important window to observe structural changes and sentiment turning points.

The above views are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.