#STRK3S Conclusion (Jin10 Perspective): In the past three months (from 2025-09-26 to 12-26), the crypto market has shown a pattern of initial bullishness followed by bearishness, with bearish signals dominating since November. Overall, the trend leans towards bearish, characterized mainly by oscillating downward movement, capital outflows, and cooling market sentiment.

1. Stage Review (Jin10 Data as Anchor)

1. Late September - October: Dominated by bullish signals
- Fed rate cut expectations rose, ETF capital inflows increased, stablecoin market cap rebounded, BTC approached $100,000 at one point, mainstream coins strengthened, institutional participation was active.
2. Late October - November: Shift to bearish signals
- Bitcoin ETF net outflows expanded (about $3.5 billion in November), BlackRock's iBIT redeemed $2.2 billion in a single month; BTC retreated approximately 22.7% from its high, altcoins faced selling pressure, liquidations became frequent.
3. December: Continued bearishness + Repeated expectations
- On December 11, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but Powell's hawkish tone and signals of slowing rate cuts triggered profit-taking, with BTC dropping over $2,500 intraday, and increased liquidations across the network.
- Late December macro hawkish signals (such as Harker's comments) combined with year-end liquidity tightening led to market oscillation and weakness, with BTC fluctuating between $84,000 and $89,000, showing weak rebound momentum.

2. Core Data and Signals (Jin10 Perspective)

- Capital flows: Bitcoin ETF net outflows of $3.5 billion in November, with some short-term inflows in December but shrinking scale; institutional redemption pressure persists; ETH ETF remained relatively resilient but unable to offset overall selling pressure.
- Price and sentiment: BTC declined about 20% from November to December, ETH fell over 25%, frequent liquidations across the network; fear index shifted from neutral in October to fearful in November-December, CMF remained negative, RSI repeatedly approached oversold levels.
- Liquidity and selling pressure: Stablecoin market cap growth slowed, mainstream coins' 24H trading volume shrank in December, large holders' sell-offs and ETF redemptions created negative feedback loops.

3. Key Reasons for the Bearish Dominance

1. Macro expectation reversal: The Fed's rate cut pace was slower than expected, hawkish guidance suppressed risk asset valuations, capital shifted to traditional safe havens.
2. Capital outflows and profit-taking: ETF flows shifted from net inflow to large outflows, institutions took profits, reducing market resilience.
3. Narrative cooling: Meme coins, BRC20 hype cooled down, valuation-supported coins continued to decline, liquidity dried up.
4. Industry and regulation: Litigation/liquidation risks for some projects, increased exchange delistings further weakened risk appetite.

4. Trading and Risk Control Tips

- Prioritize short positions: During rebounds to key resistance levels (BTC $89,000-$92,000, ETH $3000-$3050), take small short positions with stop-loss at resistance upper bounds, targeting previous lows.
- Position sizing and risk management: Keep total position ≤3%, strictly set stop-losses, avoid bottom-fishing small coins without fundamentals; during crypto recovery, weak coins' rebound elasticity remains much lower than mainstream assets.